Oliver’s insights – sell in May and go away? The worry list for shares (and the good news!)

1 June

Key points – Shares are vulnerable to a pull back in the months ahead reflecting the rising risk of recession on the back of central bank tightening and weak seasonal influences.  – Falling inflation should enable central banks, including the...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – peak Australian home ownership Rising prosperity (and smashed avocado) versus housing affordability

25 May

Key points – Based on a Report by Bernard Salt, Australia’s home ownership rate peaked at 73% in 1966 as the home was then seen as synonymous with wealth and security. – Since then, the trend has been down, influenced by a combination of...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – commercial property returns under threat

18 May

Key points – Australian unlisted commercial property returns have been very strong over the last two decades thanks largely to the “search for attractive yields” by investors. – With the back up in bond yields, this driver is reversing...[Read More]

The 2023-24 Budget – Return to surplus with fastest improvement since end of WW2, cost of living help but structural deficits remain (albeit smaller)

11 May

Key points – The budget this year is expected to return to a surplus of $4bn thanks to a continuing revenue windfall. – Key measures include cost-of-living support, more spending on aged care and a move to slow NDIS growth. – Implications...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – Australian home prices

4 May

Here we go again! Prices look to have bottomed as the supply shortfall dominates, but watch rates and unemployment Key points – Australian home prices rose again in April & along with other indicators suggest the home price downturn is...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – RBA review

27 April

it’s not clear the proposed reforms will lead to a better outcome for the Australian economy Key points – The independent Review of the RBA has recommended a significant change in the way the RBA does things in relation to the monetary policy...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – investment outlook Q&A

20 April

Key points – Inflation is likely to have peaked and this means that central banks are either at or close to the top on rates. – The risk of recession has increased but should be avoided in Australia, providing the RBA is at or near the top on...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – five charts on investing to keep in mind in rough times like now

29 March

Key points – Successful investing can be really difficult in times like now with immense uncertainty around inflation, interest rates, issues in global banks and recession risks impacting the outlook for investment markets. – This makes it all...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – have Australian home prices bottomed? Probably not.

22 March

Key points – Capital city property prices so far in March are on track for a 0.6% or so gain, led by Sydney, based on CoreLogic data. – The main positives for the residential property market are improving demographic demand, constrained supply...[Read More]

Shares hit another bout of turbulence

15 March

US banks, inflation, interest rates and recession risk – what it means for investors? Key points: – US regional bank failures have added to uncertainty about the investment outlook flowing from inflation & rate hikes. – Specific issues with...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – nine key lessons for today from the 1970s, 80s and 90s

1 March

Key points – The experience of the high inflation 1970s and its aftermath hold key lessons for today. In particular, that once high inflation becomes entrenched in expectations that it will stay high, inflation is very hard to get back down but...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – seven key charts for investors to keep an eye on

22 February

Key points – We are reasonably upbeat on the outlook for investment markets this year, but it won’t be smooth sailing and after a strong start to the year share markets are vulnerable to a further pull back in the short term given ongoing...[Read More]

Oliver’s Insights – the RBA hikes rates by another 0.25% – are we there yet?

8 February

Key points The RBA hiked again by 0.25% taking the cash rate to 3.35%. It continues to expect to increase interest rates further. We remain of the view the cash rate is near the top as: rate hikes impact with a lag; inflationary pressures are...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – Australian v global shares

1 February

Key points – The underperformance of Australian versus global shares since 2009 reflects a combination of tighter monetary policy, the strong $A into 2011, the slump in commodity prices, property crash phobia and classic mean reversion. –...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – macro investment outlook

18 January

Key points – 2022 was dominated by high inflation, rising interest rates, war in Ukraine & recession fears. This hit bonds & shares hard, driving losses for balanced growth super funds. – 2023 is likely to remain volatile and a retest of 2022...[Read More]